Semi-Finals — Down To The Contenders
✅ Who's In
The 61 who advanced from St. Jude — top 50 & ties (59) on score, plus the two Golden Ball ⛳ holders who missed that cut. All 6 Golden Ball winners are in the field. This is the deep end.
🏆 Who Advances
Only the top 20 & ties punch through to the Tour Championship Finals at East Lake. Full tiebreaker in effect — every stroke counts double this week.
🔥 The Squeeze
St. Jude was a survive-and-advance grind. The BMW is a knife fight — a loaded field of 61 entries fighting for 20 Finals seats. No hiding now.
Contenders Board — Model & MarketModel & market tiers
1Scottie Scheffler G1Defending champ, No.1Favorite
2Rory McIlroy G12nd in every modelContender
3Sam Burns G1Total-driving fitContender
4Tommy Fleetwood G1BMW historyContender
5Ludvig Åberg G1Elite T2G & APPContender
6Collin Morikawa G1Iron play travelsContender
7Matt Fitzpatrick G1FedExCup No.2Contender
8Xander Schauffele G1Named co-favoriteContender
9Wyndham Clark G1Hits all 4 model criteriaValue
10Patrick Cantlay G2Mr. BMW — 2 recent winsValue
11Cameron Young G1Top-5 in SG: T2GValue
12Viktor Hovland G23rd comp-course historyValue
13Hideki Matsuyama G2Model top-10Value
14Robert MacIntyre G2Runner-up here in '25Sleeper
15Tom Kim G2No.1 in SG: APPSleeper
16Alex Fitzpatrick G3Sneaky ball-striking fitLongshot
Ranking blends the Lineups model top-10, comp-course history, and SG: T2G/APP leaders (as of Sun Aug 16). Tiers are a guide, not posted prices — see DraftKings for full outrights. G1/G2/G3 = pick-sheet group.
Bellerive CC — Course Profile
LocationTown & Country, St. Louis, MO
Par / YardsPar 70 · 7,448 yards
DesignerR.T. Jones Sr. · Rees Jones reno
Greens / FairwaysT1 Bentgrass · Zoysia fairways
TypeLong, classic parkland test
DangerPenal rough & treelines — both par-5s 600+
FormatNo cut · all 50 play 4 rounds
Last big event2018 PGA — Koepka 264 (−16)
Weather Forecast — St. LouisAs of Aug 16
Thu R1
87°F / 31°C
Warm, humid
Storms ~35%
Fri R2
92°F / 33°C
Hot
Rain ~5%
Sat R3
87°F / 31°C
Part cloud
Rain ~15%
Sun R4
81°F / 27°C
Pleasant
Rain ~5%
Classic muggy St. Louis August. Storms rumble through early in the week and there's a shower risk Thursday, then it dries out and cools nicely into the weekend. Softer, rain-fed conditions tend to yield low scoring at Bellerive — the 2018 PGA was one of the softest majors of the decade. Early outlook; monitor as the week firms up.
Recent BMW Champions
2025Scottie SchefflerCaves Valley−15
2024Keegan BradleyCastle Pines−12
2023Viktor HovlandOlympia Fields−17
2022Patrick CantlayWilmington−14
2021Patrick Cantlay (playoff)Caves Valley−27
2008Camilo Villegas (last at Bellerive)Bellerive−15
BMW — By The Numbers
Playoff role2nd FedExCup event (penultimate)
FieldTop 50 in FedExCup points
Advance to Tour Champ.Top 30 after this week
HeritageBorn 1899 as the Western Open
Bellerive majors1965 U.S. Open · '92 & '18 PGA
Missing this yearKoepka (2018 champ) missed the playoffs
Stats That Travel To BelleriveWeigh these across your 8
🏹 Total Driving
Bellerive is long with generous fairways but savage rough. Distance is an edge, but big misses are fatal — only a handful of players rate above average in both distance and accuracy. Prioritise the complete drivers.
🎯 SG: Approach / Prox 125–200
This is the whole ballgame. There are no scramble-for-birdie holes here — you generate looks with mid-to-long irons from the fairway. Approach play decided the 2018 PGA and will decide this one.
🌲 Comp-Course History
Only four competitive rounds here since 2006, so lean on Bellerive's cousins: Muirfield Village, Caves Valley ('25), Wilmington, Olympia Fields. Scheffler, McIlroy and Hovland top that combined list.
📈 Bentgrass Putting
Fresh T1 bentgrass greens — smoother and faster than 2018, with new pin shelves. Comfort on quick bentgrass separates the field on a course where you can't fake your way around.
⛳ BMW Event History
The BMW roams but rewards the same names: Scheffler, Sam Burns, McIlroy, Åberg, MacIntyre, Cantlay, Fleetwood all rank top-10 in recent BMW form. Pressure-proof playoff pedigree matters.
🔥 Finals Motivation
On Tour, the top 30 chase East Lake; in our pool, only the top 20 reach the Finals. Everyone left is a proven closer — there is no bubble-fodder to farm this week, so back form and fit over names.
SF Survival StrategyTop 20 & ties advance
Ceiling matters more now
The QF was about avoiding blowups. The SF is about beating a smaller, stronger field to a top-20 seat — you need weeks that pop, not just weeks that survive. Tilt a touch more aggressive.
Win the Group 2 middle
Four of eight come from Group 2 and the talent gap is razor-thin. Lean on Bellerive-fit ball-strikers — Cantlay, Hovland, Matsuyama, MacIntyre — over reputation picks.
Don't punt Group 3
Every name in this 50-man field is elite — your two Group 3 picks aren't dart throws, they're real players (Alex Fitzpatrick, Reitan, Bhatia). Target the ones who fit long parkland golf.
Latest News & Resources
BMWChampionship.com — Official Site
Field, tee times, and live info from Bellerive
PGA Tour — BMW Overview & Leaderboard
Field, FedExCup standings, and live scoring
FedExCup Playoff Standings
Who made the top 50 — and who's chasing the top 30
Outright Odds — DraftKings
Full BMW board (opens Monday, Aug 17)
PGA Tour — Player Stats & Rankings
SG data, total driving, and comp-course history